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The law of averages.
That being said, I am ecstatic we were & the boys met their goal. But next year counts. Discuss:
I've heard this many times and it has no justification. When we line up and play our games next year, what we did in the previous year has nothing to do with what will happen on the field. One game at a time. The team controls what will happen, not some mathematical analysis of CFB history.
The Here & Now - Recruiting.
I do think if Ohio State drops an early conference game, but otherwise runs the table and wins impressively in the B10 title game, they could still finish in the top 2 BCs, earning a shot in the NC game. You just never know with how crazy things get. Problem (with this scenario) is, the only formidable opponent on the schedule early on is Wisconsin, and the Bucks get them at home. I could realistically see OSU being favored in every regular season game.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by BlockOFanatic 17 months ago
There is no celestial predisposition that materially reduces the chance to drive for a game winning TD next year because we won all of our games the prior year.
Next year will not be reduced to an exercise in statistical probability.
The law of averages is a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample of everyday life...The "Law of Averages" has not been too kind to TTUN over the past 12 years..Those clowns are 2-10
Woody and Archie.................................. Alex being Alex, ....................................and Woody at Dennison
So you are saying we are going to go 0-12 next year?
That is really what the law of averages is all about.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
I understand your position and what you're trying to say but I disagree slightly. Decisions in a football game are made on statistical probability. For example, what's the statistical probability of converting a 4th and 20 for a first down? Very low, so you punt. What the statistical probability of making a 70 yard field goal. Very low, so you punt. What I'm obviously saying is statistical probability is a huge part of the game of football and sports in general. However, to your point, the formation of the stars will not effect how well we do on the field. :)
We are not talking of coin flips here.
Intruding into your statistical world are things like talent, leadership, "smarts", sound institutional processes, etc.
No doubt beating Oklahoma's 47 game win streak is one tall order, but let's not assume we revert to the "mean".
Here's a stat for folks:
What is it, and who has a better one?
What does your "statistical probability" have to do with the law of averages on random events? Your examples deal with decision making ... and the is no place for decision making in random events. If you're talking about placing bets at the roulette wheel and betting on black after 12 consecutive reds ... that's one thing .. which, by the way, never works anyhow. We didn't lose to Michigan 24-12 because we were undefeated the previous year. We lost because the officials were paid off and those scumbags spiked our Gatorade.
If the law of averages had anything to do with it, every team would be .500 over the long run. Great season followed by awful season, etc. right. Guess what, they aren't.
The mechanism through which your hypothesis would work is this:
- Great teams TEND to be long-term starter heavy;
- Long-term starters TEND to graduate of leave for the NFL early
- Replacing a lot of long-term starters tend to mean a rebuilding next season.
That is true IN GENERAL. However, the truth is that the traditionally great programs are better than anyone else at reloading versus rebuilding. (That has to do with having better coaches and being a better recruiting draw.)
And that's why teams like Bama, OSU, USC, Okie, etc. VERY SELDOM have down years (more than a couple losses)...even after great seasons. That's also the reason that your hypothesis does not apply to a place like OSU. (Maybe KSU, but not OSU.)
The law of averages doesn't exist statistically. If you're worried that we're "due" for a loss, you're worrying about nothing.
Law of Averages does infact exist statistically,but it is generally called the Law of Large Numbers.
Basically what it says is that given a large sample size, the net outcome will ultimately approach the mean (regression to the mean). In order for the LLN to apply you need an established mean. It also does not claim that the LLN has any ability to affect the future outcomes of Independent Random Variables, therefore the LLN is not a predictive tool. To use it in this way is a gross conceptual error.
The LLN implies that if I flip a coin 4X there will be a large variability in the % outcome, but if I flip the coin 1,000,000 my outome will generally be very close to 50% (thousanths of a percent in this case). If the Buckeyes were 50% likely to win all their games next year, the fact that they won all their games this year does not affect that probability.
As every mutual fund prospectus puts it, "Past performance is not indicative of future results."
It adds to your tradition...bigtime. It helps your all-time wins and winning %
It's another undefeated season.
I'm familiar with the LLN, but I want to distinguish that from the law of averages. The law of averages is the idea that past results influence future results. In other words, the law of averages is that if you flip a coin and it lands tails, the odds of the next individual flip landing heads is increased. Clearly, that doesn't exist in statistics. And obviously you described what LLN is, so I'll stand by my original statement that the law of averages doesn't exist in statistics. Also, I accidentally DVd you, my bad. Hopefully someone can get you back.
that is the average of my 5th period AP US History class I teach ...
and a better on is my 3rd period class... the have a .877 average ..
Sounds like you better stop getting lazy towards the end of the day:)
he wouldn't let his players pose in the Playboy All-American magazine edition, he said, "Cause you can't play football with an erection."
Billy Madison's principal responds:
"Mr. waufbri1, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul. "
This post was edited by NJDF 17 months ago
"Leaders & Legends? Really? How about just name the divisions, Ohio State & everyone else." -Colin Cowherd
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