Around the 'Shoe

+1 Interesting and insightful perspective. Belonging to a conference means the whole is greater than the sum of its parts and if it is, everyone works together to profit together; still, those parts each need to be able to carry their own weight, and with all due respect to Title IX, that comes down to two sports--football and men's basketball. But football is the undisputed king and football means money, which is the unquestioned driver behind all of this.

It's my understanding that currently each B1G school gets about $25 million/year for being a member of the conference. That's a total of $325 million split 13 ways (I'm assuming the conference gets an equal share, just as it does bowl revenue). So any school added would need to up the ante by $25 million, i.e., the B1G's pot would conceivably need to grow to $375 million if the B1G ever expands to 14 schools. Otherwise, adding two teams without an increase in revenue means everyone would get a smaller split ($325 divided by 15 = $21.7 million), except for maybe the two teams added, for whom $21.7 million might represent a significant increase--it's already more than FSU and Clemson or any of the Big 12's aside from Texas get from their conferences, including Nebraska when they were a member. Louisville won't add $25 million; UC won't; UConn won't; Iowa State won't. Adding any of those schools would be a case of subtraction by addition for the current 12 B1G teams.

So who has the star power to bring $25 million to the B1G's table and also meet its standards academically? As I have stated on other threads, the pickings are slim. Notre Dame clearly has that ability. Millions of Irish fans around the country not currently subscribing to the BTN would become B1G fans; every game against NU would be a sellout, even Northwestern's home games against the Irish would be moved to Soldier Field to accommodate the demand for tickets from ND's Subway Alumni. More bowl game revenue would be added and even minor bowls featuring the Irish would have a better chance of selling out than second-tier B1G schools like Minnesota and Purdue could. Appreciating Rutgers detractors will disagree, it might qualify but someone had better do a very detailed feasibility study to make sure there's a helluva lot more upside than they've shown as a member of the Big Least, i.e., joining the B1G would be a win for Rutgers but would it be a win for the B1G? If Delaney's going to make that bet, he'd better make sure the odds are in his favor.

Bottomline, it's all about the bottomline--the B1G can't expand simply for the sake of expansion, especially if it means actually equates to taking a step backward. The price of admission starts at $25 million.

There are four schools in my opionion that would qualify for B1G membership using my criteria. First, they have to be the large flagship school of the state with an equally large alumni following. Second, they should have or recently had championship seasons in football. Third, they should reside in populous state with at least a semi passionate fan base through out the state. Fourth, academics should be paramount in any discussion with AAU membership preferred.

Notre Dame is the exception. I've haven't cared about ND for about 20 years and even though they will never be the dominate team they once were, they're still ND and they're the only team that remotely gives the BTN a shot at NYC.

The other three other teams I consider B1G worthy are: Texas, Florida, and Washington. All of these schools are aligned with great conferences already ( well, Texas?). Academically, they're very good. They have large student bodies with large alumni bases. The problem is, Washington is way out there while Florida is way down there. Texas owns their own conference so they're not going anywhere.

The moral of my post is the B1G shouldn't expand unless it gets a dynamic member to join and other than ND, I just don't see it happening.

PS.
To Iowa buckeyes; I've been reading Frank the Tank from the beginning and although he's been wrong most of the time with his forecasts, his arguments are well thought out and reasoned. I think his percentage of .99% for ND leaving is too high. I would put it some where bertween 75-85%. Still high, but not out of sight.

Agree 100%. ND fans would like to believe this is the irresistible force (expansion) versus the immovable object (ND's steadfast refusal to blow with the pervailing winds of change and remain independent).

But at some point, the external forces may shift and create a dynamic that forces ND to change its tune, particularly if it finds its position among the elite compromised or even downgraded because the power conferences see no reason to invite them to their party in exchange for little or no ROI. In other words: "it's our game and our ball and we'll decide if ND gets to play, not ND and if ND wants to remain an independent and not contribute its fair share to the greater good, that means independent in the truest sense of the word--you're utterly and entirely on your own. Good luck putting together a schedule now that your stubbornness has effectively downgraded you to 1-AA status."

ND feels money isn't everything and thus it can't be bought. But that doesn't mean they can't be expected to pay if they want to play.

Jim Delany opened Pandora's Box when he announced that he was exploring conference expansion in December of '09.

Now the B1G sits at 12 while the SEC and B12 are looking to become superconferences by hook or crook.

As far as Clemson to the B12? Horrible fit! If Clemson isn't in the ACC then their ideal fit is in the SEC. The same with FSU. Had the SEC done things properly they would've gone after both as opposed to the awkward fits that are Missouri and Texas A&M. Also this way FSU would've fit geographically right into the SEC West and Clemson in the East. Rather than trying to force fit a school located right on the Mississippi into the SEC East.

But if this deal does go through and the ACC loses both FSU and Clemson, then we need to go after Rutgers from the Big East along with Virginia Tech and Maryland from the ACC. With these schools the B1G would gain sound academic institutions with quality athletic programs that aren't too far out of reach location wise--esp when compared with WVU's move to the B12 and west coast schools joining the Big East.

+1 Sugar although VT isn't a member of the prestigious American Association of Universities. Nebraska was but withdrew last year. Ironically, in 2010, Nebraska chancellor Harvey Perlman stated that had Nebraska not been part of the AAU, the Big Ten would likely not have invited it to become the athletic conference's 12th member. The other 11 members of the B1G all are members, comprising nearly 1/3 of the association's 34 public university members. Maryland is a member, as are Rutgers and Pitt.

I have no idea why Clemson and FSU would want to travel to Ames, Iowa; Lawrence, Kansas; Manhattan, Kansas; Waco, Texas; or Morgantown, WV. If they want to bolt the ACC, the SEC is clearly their best option, including continuing existing rivalries that would actually be played for something besides state bragging rights in Clemson-South Carolina and FSU-Florida.

If FSU and Clemson bolt, it could be open season on the ACC, although they would still have 12 members since they'll have 14 this year with Pitt and Syracuse joining. The ACC schools stand to make an additional $3 million per year from an extended television deal the ACC and ESPN announced Wednesday afternoon. The conference is expected to pay each of its schools $17 million per year once the new 15-year extension goes in effect. Can it be assumed that with two fewer teams splitting the same pot, each remaining school's share would go up to $20 million?

There has been speculation all over multiple sights for 2 week regarding who is or isn't going where. Every one is saying FSU and Clemson to the Big XII. . The ND AD has said ND isn't going anywhere. NO ONE has mentioned the REAL reason ND MAY be looking to move. NO ONE knows what NBC is going to do for aa new TV contract for ND. If they can give ND any where close to what ND wants, they are not going anywhere. The speculation has been that ND hasn't been producing the ratings that NBC wants, so NBC won't be willing to come up with the money for ND. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY REASON ND JOINS A CONFERENCE. Or if the NCAA says that to play in the National Championship semi finals, you must be a conference champion.

Black Shoe Diaries has a good take on expansion. How it started and where they think we're going. Not surprising, they agree with me that of all of the teams thrown around to join the B1G, ND is the only one that makes financial sense.

http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2012/5/24/3037653/conference-expansion-delany-goes-corleone

Conference football realignment began in earnest on June 2nd, 1984. On that date, the US Supreme Court rendered its decision in NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma. Prior to that ruling, the NCAA solely negotiated college football broadcast rights--from every NCAA member institution--and distributed the revenue, after taking its cut off the top, to every NCAA member institution. This, the Supreme Court ruled, violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, and the ethos underpinning the Ayn Rand School for Tots

As a result of the June 2nd decision, institutions were able to negotiate directly with the broadcast television entities. The College Football Association (CFA), a 64-member subset of the NCAA, negotiated its own deal with ABC that year, and kept the revenue in-house. But by 1990, with TV money exploding, some members (probably Texas) decided that splitting 64 ways was still too much sharing. So conferences began negotiating media rights deals on their own, and the CFA was kaput. The Big Ten and Pac-10 landed individual deals with ABC. Notre Dame reached an agreement with NBC. And CBS struck a bargain with the SEC.

Conferences, in most instances being a group of like entities, brought more to the negotiating table than independent institutions, and consequently garnered better television deals. This signaled the end of the road for most independents, including Penn State, Miami, Florida State, and, well, pretty much every one, with the exception of Notre Dame.

With that as a brief historical context, why are universities so eager to realign today? As best I can tell, there are five top reasons, as follows:
1.Money.
2.Money, to fill gaps caused by bankrupt state budget cuts.
3.Money, to fuel the fleet of university jets that universities can't afford not to have.
4.Money, as future media rights payouts go through the roof. And,
5."Stability", defined as membership in a conference that will maintain its place at the (money) feeding trough.

In recent years, conferences engaged in a handful of tactics to make more TV money.

1.Add a 12th team, and hold a conference championship game. Twelve is the number thou shall count, and the number of thou counting shall be twelve. Thou shall count 11, only if it then be followed by twelve. Thirteen shall thou not count. Sixteen is right out! (for this play, anyway). When the Big Ten added Nebraska, FOX forked over an estimated $145 million for the first six championship games - a little over $24M per game. That's some sweet action.
2.Add more members (aka, the total gross eyeball play). These TV agreements may span a decade or more when executed, but contain clauses allowing for adjustments - both up and down - based on changes in membership. If your conference adds a national brand or two, you can expect a bump. If it adds Pitt and Syracuse, you shouldn't hold your breath. Pitt and Syracuse increase your gross eyeball count, but there can be more to it than that (explained further below).
3.Develop marketable properties, and sell them. Those properties may be an inter-conference battle royale (Big Ten vs. Pac-12). Or, it might be just a single 'Champions' Bowl' that very closely mimics what the Big Ten and Pac-12 have in the Rose Bowl.
4.Develop marketable properties, like an ice hockey league, and sell said properties to yourself - because you created your own cable network. Then, charge every cable subscriber in nine states 60 cents per month for the network, on top of the ad revenue the network brings in. Sure, other conferences will laugh at you when you announce the idea, but you're five years smarter than everyone else. So don't sweat it.

There were 64 institutions that broke from the NCAA pack in 1984. There are probably 20 institutions - or less - that represent the reason media companies shell out billions of dollars for broadcast rights. TV pays for eyeballs, and generally speaking, the more eyeballs you bring to the table, the more cash you get. As it turns out, the NY Times penned an article on conference eyeball counts. Here are your summary totals from that article, adjusted for the most recent realignment activity:

1.Big Ten - 12 members - 17,527,996
2.SEC - 14 members - 16,670,957
3.ACC - 14 members - 12,752,137
4.Big 12 - 10 members - 8,353,867
5.Pac-12 - 12 members - 7,440,752
6.Big East - 12 members - 4,608.878
7.Notre Dame - 1 Touchdown Jesus - 2,261,738
8.All other conferences - who cares.

Obviously, the cash you get is not just raw eyeball counts. The Big East could make itself into a 100-member conference with 19 million pairs of eyeballs, and it would still be a poo-poo platter to TV execs. Only the hardest of diehard college football fans will tune in to watch Central Florida face off against SMU, when said diehard is not a fan of either team.

But that's not the case for a handful of marquee brands. A casual football fan will tune in for Michigan vs. Ohio State, or Alabama vs. Auburn, or (Jim Delany hopes) Penn State vs. Oregon/USC/Stanford. Networks know this. Barbasol knows this. Ro-Tel knows this. Marketable, national athletic brands are few, and they command premium payouts.

Looking at the Times' figures, you would assume that the ACC would be better positioned than either the Big 12 or Pac-12 - they have more total eyeballs, and with Florida State and Miami, they have a couple of nationally recognized brands, right? Plus, they are a preeminent basketball conference. My God, don't forget the basketball! So why is the ACC ripe for pillaging? There are a couple of reasons.

First, the TV networks say that basketball sucks. ABC/ESPN told the ACC that they can have all the alley-oops they want; they can have a big alley-oop party in the middle of Tiananmen Square and it won't make a lick of difference, because basketball ads don't bring 30% of what football ads bring. Only football maters. Or, at least, that's how Clemson's Athletic Director explained it. (Cheer up, Clemson. The NY Times pegs you with the largest, most masochistic fan base in the ACC. So you have that going for you.)

Second, ABC/ESPN told the ACC that they suck at football, and so do Pitt and Syracuse. Yes, the ACC crowed about a re-negotiated TV deal that would pay out $17 - $20 million per team annually - on average over the life of the contract. Ah, the devil is always in the details. The reason Florida State's Chairman is angry is because the payout doesn't materially change in the near term. The contract is a back-loaded public relations play so the ACC can save face by appearing to approximate the Pac-12's and Big 12's recent deals. But by the time the ACC reaches those increased payouts in 2027 - yes, 2027 - the Big Ten and SEC will have purchased their own continents on Jupiter for broadcasting into the ESO 137-001 galaxy. Or in other words, the ACC's total gross eyeball gambit failed.

Third, the BCS is dead. We don't yet know what shape the playoff will take, or how bowls will be impacted. But, with the SEC/Big 12's announcement of a new Rose Bowl-like-substance, we can draw a few hypotheses. Try these on for size:

1.The big six power conferences could - could- become four power conferences (Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, Big 12). Who will be the ACC's dance partner, to stay at six? The decaying corpse formerly known as Big East football? A twice beaten MAC champ?
2.Outside of the Rose Bowl and the new Rose Bowl-like-substance, where intentions are fully declared, does the Orange (or Fiesta, or Sugar/Cotton survivor) really want to maintain an ACC/Big East tie-in in a non-BCS world? The ACC is 2-13 in BCS bowl games, and can't fill the stadium, not to mention the flaccid TV ratings. Contrast that picture with the fact that the Big Ten has received two BCS bids every year, no matter how bad those two teams were (hello, 9 - 3 Zookers). Why? Those bowls--and their cash--want the most marketable properties to make the most bucks. Would the Orange Bowl rather stage a Wake Forest vs. Rutgers showdown, or a 3rd place Nebraska vs. a 2nd place Georgia? Puh-lease. Delany knows where this is going because he's guiding it there, Corleone-style. That's why he's suddenly ready to re-evaluate the Big Ten's bowl tie-ins, which are among the best already.

So there you go. The ACC is in play for poaching because they could be without a chair at the big boys' table when the music stops. And, thanks to the SEC, the suddenly stable Big 12 could make some more dough by adding two teams (would you mind holding, Louisville? DeLoss has a call from Tallahassee).

How does this affect the Big Ten? Would Jim Delany want any of the ACC properties?

In short - no, he (probably) does not.

Florida State has two MNC's and a (sort of) national appeal. I think they're a great football school. But, according to the New York Times and the people writing paychecks, they aren't on the 'elite' level (and neither is VaTech). The Times estimates FSU as the 38th largest fanbase (for reference, PSU is 3rd)--and that's not totally unreasonable. FSU was actually known as "The Rocco Club For Womens' Typewriter Maintenance", or something like that, until 1947. They're on the Florida panhandle (read, Alabama). And simply put, they aren't like Penn State within the state of Florida. That's where the University of Florida fits in. FSU, on the other hand, is like a (much better) Pitt. And so is Miami, when they're not on probation and short 30 scholarships. That's not my opinion, by the way. It's ABC/ESPN's.

Would Delany be interested in Duke, UNC or UVa? How about Maryland? They have academics and basketball, and in Maryland's case, Under Armor jersey appeal. My God - the Big Ten could grow to 64 teams and be THE ONLY BASKETBALL CONFERENCE IN THE WORLD!

"Yawn", according to those who hold the purse strings. As stated above, basketball contributes less than one-third of football in dollar terms FOR THE ACC, whose basketball is great and football significantly less so. It's more probably less than one-fifth - a drop in the bucket. But whatever the fraction, it is not accretive to the existing conference members. Rules #1 through #12 in conference expansion: you don't add teams to make less money on a per-team basis (paying attention yet, ACC?).

How about a Rutgers/UConn combo; or a Maryland/Pitt/Syracuse? They could get the Big Ten the NY/NJ and/or DC television markets? New TV markets - that'd be worth something, right?

Probably not. Penn State affords as much exposure in those markets as any of those choices - to the extent those are even college oriented markets (they aren't, of course). But most importantly - Rutgers, UConn, Maryland, Pitt, Syracuse, and most likely, any combination thereof, are still not accretive to the Big Ten's existing per-team payout. Coffee is for closers, you see, and they aren't it. It's not personal, Pitt. It's just business.

On the other hand, Notre Dame has the 4th largest fan base according to that Times article.

That's right, the Golden Domers. The mythical flying unicorn of conference expansion.

Notre Dame, despite being essentially a 13th Big Ten team, and despite not being any good at all since shortly after signing that NBC contract in 1990, and despite being more obnoxious than Bret Bielema going for 2 against Minnesota when he's leading by 39 in the fourth quarter...would likely be accretive to the Big Ten - or any conference, for that matter. But they aren't budging. Notre Dame reportedly makes somewhere in the neighborhood of $9 million per year from its NBC deal - that's a Delany restaurant tip. If it was about cash to Notre Dame, they would already be in the Big Ten, where the payout to that 2-win Minnesota team (thanks, Hawkeyes!) is in the $20+ million range, and climbing.

That's right, Tomahawk Nation. Minnesota and Indiana raked in north of $60 million over the last 3 years, winning an FCS-assisted average of a grand total of 3.57 football games, while you were making $11 - $12 million slogging it out against Oklahoma and Florida in your non-con. Doesn't that thought make you want to vomit? And that number is only going to increase, by the way. The Big Ten Network is a cash cow that's only getting fatter; and, the Big Ten is the one power conference that has NOT renegotiated its first-tier (ABC/ESPN) football rights in the last couple of years, as far as I'm aware of. Yep - the Big Ten makes the most money today, with the oldest set of contracts, in a fast growth market. The ABC/ESPN deal expires in 2016/17. When that contract comes up for renegotiation, just watch out.

Do I love the Big Ten? Actually, no. I'm old enough to remember PSU independence, and jumping on my dad's back when Pete Giftopolous sealed the 1987 Fiesta Bowl. It's taken 20 years for me to move from shock to acceptance, and grudgingly into the realm of maybe-liking-membership-a-little. But I cannot deny the business acumen with which the conference has positioned itself. There simply is no better place to be for the next 20 years.

All of which requires me to tip my hat to Don Corleone Jim Delany and gang, for that, at least.

Now take your Stagg-[redacted] Trophy and shove it - right into that massive, dump-truck pile of cash you split evenly, which secures my alma mater's athletic future, despite outsourced PR firm billings that exceed the GDP of Djibouti.

The Black Shoes Diaries writer, who's obviously a PSU fan, mentioned that PSU and FSU rank as the 3rd and 38th largest fanbases, per the NY Times. That got me to thinking: who's 1st and 2nd? I found the article, which is attached. Very, very interesting reading.

Anyway, according to the NY Times, the 10 largest fanbases are (in millions):

1. Ohio State (3.17)
2. scUM (2.92)
3. PSU (2.64)
4. ND (2.26)
5. Texas (2.25)
6. Texas A&M (2.03)
7. Auburn (1.90)
8. Alabama (1.88)
9. Florida (1.81)
10. Clemson (1.76)

Among other B1G's, Wisconsin is #12 (with 1.44 million, which is less than half OSU's fanbase), Iowa #15, Nebraska #18 and MSU #20. That's seven Big Ten teams in the top 20 nationally. And all but one B1G school is in the top 50, the lone exception being Northwestern at #54, which is just behind Mississippi State at #50, Duke at #51, Iowa State at #52, and USF at #53, but ahead of Boise State at #57, Maryland at #58, NC State at #59, and Vanderbilt at #64, which puts the Commodores close to the very end of the BCS pack.

What's interesting is ND has the 2nd largest fanbase in NYC and the 6th largest in Omaha, which are about as two diverse metros as you'll find (OSU is #9 in NYC and not even on the radar in Omaha--even Pitt ranks higher in Omaha than we do). I'll bet they'd be close to Top 10 in virtually every Top 50 TV market in the country, which would mean giving the B1G a critical marketing entry in SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 markets.

Among teams whose names have been bandied about as prospects for B1G expansion, ND, as previously mentioned, is #4. Georgia Tech is #11 (which makes them bigger than UGA at #22), Va Tech is #13, UVA #36, and Maryland only #58, behind even Northwestern.

Rutgers is #32, which ranks it ahead of Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern, but it's far and away #1 in NYC, which is the largest CFB market in the country (which isn't surprising since it's also the most populous market in the country, and where PSU is #3 behind #1 Rutgers and #2 ND, scUM is #5, and OSU is #9 for a combined total of almost 400M fans for those three schools, which proves there are B1G fans in NYC, and suggests the market may be currently underserved). With the loss of WVU, Pitt and Syracuse, Rutgers--which was #2 in the Big Least even before those three defected, behind only WVU and ahead of Pitt and Syracuse--now is the Big Least's undisputed #1 with 1/3 more fans than UConn.

This helps me understand why Rutgers may be an attractive addition--top dog in a large, untapped market that's been grossly underserved with a mediocre product (Big Least Conference), that already has a very significant B1G presence that would provide a boost to Rutgers' attendance and visibility. Add in ND and the B1G would absolutely OWN the NYC metro with at least 1 million fans between Rutgers, ND, PSU, scUM and OSU. It is low hanging fruit, a Big Apple just waiting to be plucked (pun intended). Image having the B1G champsionship game in the Meadowlands. Why not? The NFL's played regular season games in Europe and Asia, Navy and ND are opening this season in Dublin. If you want to convert the natives, you have spend some time among them to win their hearts and minds. That would be a HUGE marketing coup! (Love it or hate it, we've be willing to think out of the box, folks.)

Expansion's about the business side of college football. It's about economics and part of economics is projecting what could be, not rooted in what's been or currently what is. $25 million is the price of admission. After reading this article, ND qualifies but now I can see why Rutgers is considered a viable 14th partner if the Irish were to ever decide to join.

To me there's some interesting percentages in the NY Times article that doesn't bode well for the BTN.

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

Scroll down to the most popular teams in NYC and if you add up the current membership of the B1G, it only amounts to 1.9% of interest in the total population. Surprisingly, add ND to our total, it only brings it up to 3.2 %. If we then lose our minds and add shitty Rutgers, the total then becomes 6.2% Throw in the rest of the B1G stragglers and you probably are looking at around 6.5 - 7% viewership.

Now compare those numbers with interest in the Omaha area and you can see that there just isn't the interest in college football in NYC.

I don't live in Ohio anymore, but my sister told me there was a full court press by Tressel, Gee, and Smith along with all of the other B1G coaches to pressure local cable companies to carry the BTN as a single entity like ESPN and not as part of their sports package. If they tried the same tact in NYC, they would get laughed right out of town.

I really think that even if you add ND and Rutgers, it's a pipe dream to land NYC for the BTN.