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For those college football nutjobs like me who can’t stand the offseason, this might be for you. With all the talk of a college football playoff in the news lately I decided to get creative with the only simulation tools I have: a PS3 and NCAA 12. Using the final BCS regular season standings for seeding; I have created a 24 team playoff (24 teams because the BCS standings doesn’t extend to 32) that I will simulate to see who virtually would have been the national champion. First off, I am in not in favor at all of a 24 team playoff. This is not conducive in reality. My playoff starts on December 17 (two weeks after the conference title games) and extends until January 14th. The Top 8 seeds all have first round byes and the higher seeded team will host until the semi-finals. The semi-finals will be played at the Orange and Sugar Bowls. The championship will be played at the Rose Bowl. I have gone to great extents to make this simulation as legitimate as possible including roster changes due to injury or suspension and even accurate weather conditions at the site where the games would have been played. Check it out here: http://short-sideoption.blogspot.com/ , it’s a good source of entertainment in the off-season!
Interesting exercise. I'd ask some questions--why 24 teams (I don't think anyone would have expected Texas or USM or WVU to go very far)? why 1st round byes? why not just 16 teams--but you're already into it so I'm curious to see how it pans out.
Yes, this sounds like a fun way to pass the off-season. It's just fun checking out a bracket for a proposed CFB playoff. I don't know how hard this would be, but have you considered running your simulation several times and then looking at the average results? I say that, because some of the simulated games were really close, and there were some surprising results (WVU just barely losing @ Wisconsin, Penn State losing by only 1 point @ Virginia Tech, Michigan State edging Georgia between the hedges). One big surprise would be to see Southern Miss beating Baylor by 2 TDs @ Baylor. Ah, it's fun to dream...
Running multiple simulations seems to make sense from a margin of error/statistical reliability standpoint but would that then reduce the chances of having upsets? Since they'd only play one real game, it seems only one simulated game should be played. You can make an argument either way. Probably depends on how much down time you have (and maybe how tolerant your wife/significant other is to let you do it--mine wouldn't be... : ).
Iowa, you're right about reducing the chances of upsets. I agree with the down time issue. My wife wouldn't go for that, either! It's still fun to think about the playoff options. Maybe OrderRestored's life will allow him to try out options so we can all think about them.
@ Iowabuckeye, Yeah, it may have been easier just to do 16; and I think in the future I probably will go that route. I decided to go with 24 because when using the BCS standings for seeds; that was the highest number I could get in a playoff. If the BCS Standings extended to 32, I probably would have tried that. I definitely will do 16 next year though.
@Zeuslerus, Iowabuckeye nailed it when talking about doing multiple simulations. I'm doing the majority of this while my wife is watching American Idol haha, so time is definitely the issue; besides, upsets and unexpected close games are kind of refreshing. Thank you both for your input! Keep it coming!
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