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When will it be okay to lower expectations for the 2013 class???

  • Far be it for me to panic and I'm not now. Still, I'm beginning to think that we fans should lower our expectations for the 2013 class as top targets like Jaylon Smith and Ethan Pocic commit elsewhere.

    Last year's circumstances were highly unusual to say the least, which makes it unlikely that Meyer will be able to flip numerous players again this year. While there are still uncommitted big names remaining, most are down south where Meyer will have to perform a minor miracle to lure them to Columbus out of the clutches of Bama, Florida, Miami, Texas, USC, etc.

    While Meyer was wildly successful at Florida, I think his method is unproven at Ohio State. I'm certain the bowl ban and probation are not helping his case either.

    Whatever the case I believe that a successful, productive season will put the Buckeyes at or near the top of recruits' wish lists going forward.

    This post was edited by TimBucktoo on 6/3/2012 at 4:06 PM

    TimBucktoo

  • What i've heard from the recruiting experts is that the relationship between the coaching staff and the player is key. Not to mention the relationship with the h.s. coaches (Glenville is a perfect example). This becomes even more important with out of state kids. Urban and his staff haven't coached a game yet, and nsd is a long way off. We'll see how the 2013 class stands in February. 2014 is another story. I expect Urban to rebuild the fence around Ohio and leave Hoke and all the other B1G coaches with nothing left but table scraps in the Buckeye state.

    signature image signature image signature image

    SmutJunkie

  • Too early to count Meyer out. We will have another top 5 class. I chalk these misses to bad luck or simply odds. There is still a ton of time left and the only positions that are critical are OT and WR. I think we'll be ok.

    "Buckeye born and bred, a Buckeye 'til I'm dead"

    miguelissimo ●

  • In all honesty, I'm happy with this class so far, minus of course the o-line situation, but I'm not even close to panic mode there. What would be really disappointing is filling up with some sub-par talent just for the sake of getting bodies on the list, when the schollies could be banked for next year. Of course that would require us to truly be in on a lot of big prospects in 2014, and not just using that as an excuse for this year's recruiting flaws.

    Remember - the wide receivers/playmakers that are national prospects all seem to wait forever (the fact that we got Jalin so early I think speaks to how much of a buckeye he is, and something I'm really grateful for), so we need to just be patient with those guys. Hopefully we get Shelton in the mean time to tide us over, who I think will be awesome.

    Regarding the o-line, more people will show up their senior years. My guess is that the truly legit folks are all already on the radar by now - we may not see many more Pocics or Dorian Johnsons appear. But, if we end up with one or two low four or high three star offensive tackles that were found out their senior years, color me very happy. Remember, Warriner is a great o-line coach, and has a great history of coaching ok players into great ones.

    I think we can't really lower expectations until senior year happens for these guys and no o-line folks show up. If we don't get Quick or Foster, that will suck, but I don't think be world ending. Part of me wonders, and I know this has been mentioned before, if Urban downplays his current receivers just to motivate them.

    One last thing - I have to keep reminding myself that we have lots of great guys already. Cam, Eli, and Bosa are beyond ridiculous, and Jayme and Ezekiel Elliot are finally starting to get the recognition they deserve. Billy Price has been talked over as being a future o-line conversion, but the guy did get an Opening invite, which has to be a good sign right? Guy looks like he could rip a tank in half with his bare hands.

    buckeyesiis ●

  • buckeyesiis said...

    In all honesty, I'm happy with this class so far, minus of course the o-line situation, but I'm not even close to panic mode there. What would be really disappointing is filling up with some sub-par talent just for the sake of getting bodies on the list, when the schollies could be banked for next year. Of course that would require us to truly be in on a lot of big prospects in 2014, and not just using that as an excuse for this year's recruiting flaws.

    Remember - the wide receivers/playmakers that are national prospects all seem to wait forever (the fact that we got Jalin so early I think speaks to how much of a buckeye he is, and something I'm really grateful for), so we need to just be patient with those guys. Hopefully we get Shelton in the mean time to tide us over, who I think will be awesome.

    Regarding the o-line, more people will show up their senior years. My guess is that the truly legit folks are all already on the radar by now - we may not see many more Pocics or Dorian Johnsons appear. But, if we end up with one or two low four or high three star offensive tackles that were found out their senior years, color me very happy. Remember, Warriner is a great o-line coach, and has a great history of coaching ok players into great ones.

    I think we can't really lower expectations until senior year happens for these guys and no o-line folks show up. If we don't get Quick or Foster, that will suck, but I don't think be world ending. Part of me wonders, and I know this has been mentioned before, if Urban downplays his current receivers just to motivate them.

    One last thing - I have to keep reminding myself that we have lots of great guys already. Cam, Eli, and Bosa are beyond ridiculous, and Jayme and Ezekiel Elliot are finally starting to get the recognition they deserve. Billy Price has been talked over as being a future o-line conversion, but the guy did get an Opening invite, which has to be a good sign right? Guy looks like he could rip a tank in half with his bare hands.

    This...

    The guys we have on board already are incredible. Our average star rating has us as the #2 or #3 class.

    "Buckeye born and bred, a Buckeye 'til I'm dead"

    miguelissimo ●

  • I wholeheartedly agree with all the posters above. I don't know how heavily Meyer recruited Ohio when he was at Florida, so one of his early tasks will be establishing connections with Ohio coaches -- which I believe will be easier given he is a native son and retaining Fickell on his staff. He'll have that fence back up in no time.

    I personally think Meyer is doing a spectacular job on the recruiting front given the circumstances. Imagine the conversation if you are a top recruit visiting Bama, LSU, ****igan or USC. They generally know what they are getting in terms of the system. Additionally, those coaches can hold up the prospect of playing in a BCS (bull crap series) game -- or realistically even the national championship game (except for Hoke) -- to bait the recruits. Conversely, this is Meyer's first season at Ohio State. Even though both heavily rely on the spread concept, it is very likely that Meyer's offense will operate differently than Tressel's offense with an emphasis on different techniques. And TOSU is banned from the post-season.

    Regarding offensive linemen, Wisconsin and Iowa have worked wonders turning unheralded prep linemen into high NFL draft picks. I think Warriner has similar capabilities, and I was impressed in the line's efforts during the spring game.

    If Meyer did not sign another player in this class aside from the current commits, I would agree that we'd be in good shape everywhere but o-line when I look at who we have returning.

    I fully expect the Buckeyes to win at least 9 games this season and to serve the post-season ban. Once that is out of the way, the sky is the limit in recruiting and on the field.

    TimBucktoo

  • I think there is a big difference between panicking and setting realistic expectations. I think those in panic mode are overreacting. But at the same time I think that the expectations were set a little to high.
    Before you bite my head off let me explain. When Meyer was hired, we did not have many spaces left in the 2012 class (which I think he filled masterfully by the way) but a large portion of our fan base was clamoring "Just wait till the 2013 class, its going to be insane!" In all honesty, it is a very strong class so far, but I don't think to this point (and possibly even by NSD) it will reach the astronomical levels set by some. And while I'm on the subject expectaions, I really wish there was some censor on here that anytime you use the word "lock" or "future buckeye" for a recruit, it is cross referenced to when he actually commits and if you're wrong, you get some mark on your profile designating so.
    But back to my point, we have a great a class (even this early in the process,) I just believe that when you factor in unrealistic early expectations, the decommitments, and tsun's early success in recruiting (lets give the devil his due, they are putting together a quality class as well) I think it has put a damper on things a bit.
    Additionally, while I'm not trying to be overly adversarial, I don't think we will have a fence around Ohio anytime soon as some have suggested. Well, unless the coaches change their recruiting strategy. When you're aiming at the nationwide five stars and waiting to see what they do before you offer quality kids locally, you are going to turn some kids and HS coaches off. I think we will continue to keep the best, but we will also lose some very very good players as well.
    Anyways, just my 2 cents, hope this doesn't come off as being too much of a downer. I am still very pleased with what we have and anxious and excited to see how things end up for this class and optimistic on how the season plays out. Go Bucks and F Michigan!!!

    ralEbuckI

  • buckeyesiis said...

    In all honesty, I'm happy with this class so far, minus of course the o-line situation, but I'm not even close to panic mode there. What would be really disappointing is filling up with some sub-par talent just for the sake of getting bodies on the list, when the schollies could be banked for next year. Of course that would require us to truly be in on a lot of big prospects in 2014, and not just using that as an excuse for this year's recruiting flaws.

    Remember - the wide receivers/playmakers that are national prospects all seem to wait forever (the fact that we got Jalin so early I think speaks to how much of a buckeye he is, and something I'm really grateful for), so we need to just be patient with those guys. Hopefully we get Shelton in the mean time to tide us over, who I think will be awesome.

    Regarding the o-line, more people will show up their senior years. My guess is that the truly legit folks are all already on the radar by now - we may not see many more Pocics or Dorian Johnsons appear. But, if we end up with one or two low four or high three star offensive tackles that were found out their senior years, color me very happy. Remember, Warriner is a great o-line coach, and has a great history of coaching ok players into great ones.

    I think we can't really lower expectations until senior year happens for these guys and no o-line folks show up. If we don't get Quick or Foster, that will suck, but I don't think be world ending. Part of me wonders, and I know this has been mentioned before, if Urban downplays his current receivers just to motivate them.

    One last thing - I have to keep reminding myself that we have lots of great guys already. Cam, Eli, and Bosa are beyond ridiculous, and Jayme and Ezekiel Elliot are finally starting to get the recognition they deserve. Billy Price has been talked over as being a future o-line conversion, but the guy did get an Opening invite, which has to be a good sign right? Guy looks like he could rip a tank in half with his bare hands.

    Very optimistic and timely. I needed that!

    signature image signature image signature image

    Jimmy77

  • Regardless of which recruiting site you're looking at, Texas and Alabama are generally agreed to have had 2012's two top recruiting classes. But one of the nice things about Scout is that it tracks recruits' commitment dates.

    Texas is a great example because Mack Brown's been a notorious early recruiter. This time a year ago, the Longhorns had 15 commits. They ended up with 28. They got two more in June to go up to 17. But their 18th commit didn't come until four months later on October 31, and #19 on December 2. That means 1/3 of their recruits committed after December 1.

    Alabama signed 26, including 10 by this time last year. They got four more over the summer (one in June, three in August) to be at 14 by September 1. That means 12 of their 2012 recruits--that's 46% of their class--committed AFTER the 2011 season started, and 10 of them committed after December 1.

    We currently only have 16 open slots for this class. Maybe a few more will open up but as things stand right now, 1/3 of 16 is roughly 5. We have 11 now, which means we're in a comparable situation to where Texas was this time last year.

    Remember: ratings are based in large part by what kids did their junior years. But Ricquan Southward didn't even start a game until his senior year; likewise, Jamal Marcus seemed to have flown under the radar. The SPARQ and NTFC combines, camps, 7-on-7's, Friday Night Lights, private workouts, and how they actually play against live competition in the fall will find a lot of kids' value rising or falling. Just from what I saw on the highlights from Nike's Columbus combine, I'd expect scUM's David Dawson's stock to rise and Logan Tuley-Tillman's to fall.

    If we don't have a top 10 class, it will only be because it lacks quantity, not quality. I, for one, am VERY happy with this class right now.

    iowabuckeyes ●

  • TimBucktoo said...

    I wholeheartedly agree with all the posters above. I don't know how heavily Meyer recruited Ohio when he was at Florida, so one of his early tasks will be establishing connections with Ohio coaches -- which I believe will be easier given he is a native son and retaining Fickell on his staff. He'll have that fence back up in no time.

    I personally think Meyer is doing a spectacular job on the recruiting front given the circumstances. Imagine the conversation if you are a top recruit visiting Bama, LSU, ****igan or USC. They generally know what they are getting in terms of the system. Additionally, those coaches can hold up the prospect of playing in a BCS (bull crap series) game -- or realistically even the national championship game (except for Hoke) -- to bait the recruits. Conversely, this is Meyer's first season at Ohio State. Even though both heavily rely on the spread concept, it is very likely that Meyer's offense will operate differently than Tressel's offense with an emphasis on different techniques. And TOSU is banned from the post-season.

    Regarding offensive linemen, Wisconsin and Iowa have worked wonders turning unheralded prep linemen into high NFL draft picks. I think Warriner has similar capabilities, and I was impressed in the line's efforts during the spring game.

    If Meyer did not sign another player in this class aside from the current commits, I would agree that we'd be in good shape everywhere but o-line when I look at who we have returning.

    I fully expect the Buckeyes to win at least 9 games this season and to serve the post-season ban. Once that is out of the way, the sky is the limit in recruiting and on the field.

    well put...i also agree with the other posters so far.. Urban is bringing in quality recruits. And based on camp performances this summer, the average star rating will certainly go up. I can't wait to see Marshall and Elliott on the field making all the thick ankled defenses in the B1G look like they're stuck in the mud. The speed and talent on the defensive side should also be awesome. The d-line is going to be sick!!! I can't wait!!! Time to watch the spring game again, i'm starting to get the shakes.

    signature image signature image signature image

    SmutJunkie

  • ralEbuckI said...

    I think there is a big difference between panicking and setting realistic expectations. I think those in panic mode are overreacting. But at the same time I think that the expectations were set a little to high. Before you bite my head off let me explain. When Meyer was hired, we did not have many spaces left in the 2012 class (which I think he filled masterfully by the way) but a large portion of our fan base was clamoring "Just wait till the 2013 class, its going to be insane!" In all honesty, it is a very strong class so far, but I don't think to this point (and possibly even by NSD) it will reach the astronomical levels set by some. And while I'm on the subject expectaions, I really wish there was some censor on here that anytime you use the word "lock" or "future buckeye" for a recruit, it is cross referenced to when he actually commits and if you're wrong, you get some mark on your profile designating so. But back to my point, we have a great a class (even this early in the process,) I just believe that when you factor in unrealistic early expectations, the decommitments, and tsun's early success in recruiting (lets give the devil his due, they are putting together a quality class as well) I think it has put a damper on things a bit. Additionally, while I'm not trying to be overly adversarial, I don't think we will have a fence around Ohio anytime soon as some have suggested. Well, unless the coaches change their recruiting strategy. When you're aiming at the nationwide five stars and waiting to see what they do before you offer quality kids locally, you are going to turn some kids and HS coaches off. I think we will continue to keep the best, but we will also lose some very very good players as well. Anyways, just my 2 cents, hope this doesn't come off as being too much of a downer. I am still very pleased with what we have and anxious and excited to see how things end up for this class and optimistic on how the season plays out. Go Bucks and F Michigan!!!

    I agree with you whole heartedly. I hink the best of this class has committed. To me, it spoke volumes that 2 younger siblings of current players went someplace else. The only good players we may get yet are a wide receiver. Therest of this class will fill up with plan B or C players. Look at all the new offers that have gone out in the last month.We will not get Neal, or Green or Bell. rodgers is the only good OL that we are in on. Don't know what happened, but it looks like someone forgot to leave the "welcome" light on at the WHAC.

    This post was edited by rwkosu72 on 6/6/2012 at 8:18 PM

    rwkosu72

  • Some of u guys are giving up on what Ohio State recruiting has started as a great class We stil have a top notch receiver or 2 going to sighn maybe one of the very best safeties perhaps Rodgers an animal at guard and maybe 2 more top D lineman if so Price can go to the O line...that would put us iin the top 6-7!!! I really believe everyone needs to see us on the field last year was a bad season for many reasons done deal!!!

    ohiobigtee

  • Eli Woodard is a freak athlete. Hope we get a chance to see him play a little offense. His film is amazing.

    NWOFan

  • Currently as of June 6 we are #7 according to scout.com and # at rivals.com. I hate not being #1 in anything at anytime, but I fully expect Urban to pull in a few 4/5 stars After the season starts. I am down in SEC country and have seen Urb's do it year after year at Florida. I fully expect a top 5 class this year, which is fine with me when you consider Texas, Bama/LSU, FL always seem to be top 3 every year. No bias from those services. Then consider Ann Arbour poly tech school for the blind is a lock for top 10 and usually top 5, you can see they pretty much have a standing ranking system. That's why I don't put ANY stock in rivals or scout. Currently SMU is #37 ahead of Oregon? Either they have no clue or Oregon forgot to start recruiting. Anyone think a team that played for a national championship this recently and has great speed with many holes to fill forgot to pay the boosters to get them players....I mean start recruiting?

    If we can stay in the top 10 of both of these nonsense biased recruiting rankings then we are fine. Consider also that we might not look at some players due to system fit. I loved Julio Jones (from where I work) but he didn't set the world on fire at Bama. He was physically taller and stronger than the DB's he competed against. Notice I didn't say faster? Would we want him, of course, but he is not a Percy Harvin. Urban is looking to fill specific roles and if we can fill them with a 3 star because he doesn't block or play man like the recruiting junkies like, that's fine by me.

    If you look at his history while in Gainesville, he got Cam Newton, Tebow, Rainey, Demps, etc. They fit his system. The only real concern I have about Urb's is when he falls in love with someone he seems to stop recruiting elite talent at their position, i.e. current QB's at FLA. It is a lesson I think he has learned and he won't make the same mistake again.

    buckeyematt2002

  • I think alot of panic was induced by guys looking at tsun's class ranking, and the fact that they had 20 recruits to our 11. sure there are a few players on thier roster i would like to have but im very happy at where we are at this point in the process. hoke seems to be interested in piling up numbers, while meyer is getting quality. personally I love what he is doing on a national level. and soon enough that fence that tressle built around ohio will be rebuilt by urb. tsun got lucky and had some success last year and successs always leads to good recruiting. a few more beatdowns by the buckeyes, and hoke wont be able to pay ohio kids to go to tsun!!

    signature image signature image signature image

    ncbuckeye2

  • I think scum is up to 21 commits now. They just got a verbal from a long snapper. I don't get it--school of 35k and a team of 85 and you can't find one walkon who can spin a spiral while standing on his head and looking backwards? Color me confused

    GoBuxGo

  • It was ok when we received sanctions to lower our scholarships. First, all services rate quanity over quality. Second, Classes should not be judged by what 24/7 or rivals think but what fits our system. I wouldnt trade JT Barrett for Shane Morris although some scouting services say Morris is better. He doesn't fit into what UFM is trying to do. Another thing we need to take into account with the offense os the OL recruiting. Services rate OL based off combined pass/run protection, with the new offense a lot of the option plays the OL will just all out run block and it is up to the QB option to decide whether pass or run. Because of this our staff likely sees run blocking OL higher, this may put some OL higher on their boards than others. Just keep in mind that coaching staffs dont judge their classes based off site ratings but their own to fit their own tailored systems.

    thebuckeyeguy

  • TimBucktoo said...

    Far be it for me to panic and I'm not now. Still, I'm beginning to think that we fans should lower our expectations for the 2013 class as top targets like Jaylon Smith and Ethan Pocic commit elsewhere.

    Last year's circumstances were highly unusual to say the least, which makes it unlikely that Meyer will be able to flip numerous players again this year. While there are still uncommitted big names remaining, most are down south where Meyer will have to perform a minor miracle to lure them to Columbus out of the clutches of Bama, Florida, Miami, Texas, USC, etc.

    While Meyer was wildly successful at Florida, I think his method is unproven at Ohio State. I'm certain the bowl ban and probation are not helping his case either.

    Whatever the case I believe that a successful, productive season will put the Buckeyes at or near the top of recruits' wish lists going forward.

    Come off the ledge its ok! We are averaging 4 stars a recruit according to Rivals. I think we are alright. It is going to be a small class so top ten is unlikely anyway.

    signature image signature image signature image

    There is one at every party, thought that's why you invited me!

    bleedscarlet

  • I would say in February. Let's play the season, which includes home games v. Cal, Nebraska, and Michigan. Let's get recruits in to watch these games.

    Too early to give up on 2013.

    The class is already at least half full. Shouldn't be too hard for Urban to add another 6-10 players, including an Offensive Tackle, while still getting high 3 star to 5 star quality.

    The games in the fall will be the key. There is still uncertainty surrounding OSU with new coach, bowl ban, and 6-7 record in 2011. Let the team generate excitement on the field with a 9-3 or better season and recruits will want onboard for what will surely be even better in 2013 and 2014.

    BuckeyeMark

  • ncbuckeye2 said...

    hoke seems to be interested in piling up numbers, while meyer is getting quality.

    really? hoke is not bringing in quality? its good that your an osu fan but why be bias? no need to be blind when looking at hokes class. its not a crime to tell the truth. no one is gonna kill you if you give a little credit to hoke like i gave meyer for his 2012 quality d-line

    Wolverines89

  • Wolverines89 said...

    really? hoke is not bringing in quality? its good that your an osu fan but why be bias? no need to be blind when looking at hokes class. its not a crime to tell the truth. no one is gonna kill you if you give a little credit to hoke like i gave meyer for his 2012 quality d-line

    I needed to downvote someone thanks!

    Can't say you said anmything odd just like downvoting Michigan fans thanks!

    Charske ●

  • Charske said...

    I needed to downvote someone thanks!

    Can't say you said anmything odd just like downvoting Michigan fans thanks!

    moon

    Wolverines89

  • TimBucktoo said...

    Far be it for me to panic and I'm not now. Still, I'm beginning to think that we fans should lower our expectations for the 2013 class as top targets like Jaylon Smith and Ethan Pocic commit elsewhere.

    Last year's circumstances were highly unusual to say the least, which makes it unlikely that Meyer will be able to flip numerous players again this year. While there are still uncommitted big names remaining, most are down south where Meyer will have to perform a minor miracle to lure them to Columbus out of the clutches of Bama, Florida, Miami, Texas, USC, etc.

    While Meyer was wildly successful at Florida, I think his method is unproven at Ohio State. I'm certain the bowl ban and probation are not helping his case either.

    Whatever the case I believe that a successful, productive season will put the Buckeyes at or near the top of recruits' wish lists going forward.

    When you drop your pants and submit to a cavity search!!!

    bucknut073

  • I would say the best time to lower expectations would be a couple of weeks after Signing Day in February. By then however I do not think there will be any reason to lower expectations as we will have in house one of the Top 5 Classes of 2013.

    dbuckeye44

  • bucknut073 said...

    When you drop your pants and submit to a cavity search!!!

    I find it interesting how the quality of posts generally decline the further down the thread one reads.

    Most of the offensive linemen identified as being at the top of Urban's board have committed elsewhere or are leaning heavily towards other schools. Same is true for linebackers, safeties, and running backs. In the end, Meyer may end up signing recruits who he didn't initially offer, which is evidenced by new offers to offensive linemen.

    raIEbuckI's post captured my intended point that some fans had extremely high expectations for the 2013 class. I'm not concerned that we will not have a good to great class. More so my concern is that some fans will consider this class a failure because some of the big names high on our wish lists signed elsewhere. Either way, one class does not make a team and I long ago stopped assuming recruiting success = championships.

    Fortunately I likely will not be submitting to cavity searches anytime soon but you are more than welcome to assume the position that you suggested.

    TimBucktoo

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